Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato — Parma Round of 32
Parma · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#172ATP
1555ELO
1531Clay ELO
$83kYTD
$5.2MCAREER
33 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWLWWLLWW
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Sets
Monday, 15 June 2026 ·
clay
Marco Cecchinato faces Carlo Alberto Caniato in the Parma round of 32 on clay. Marco Cecchinato holds the paper edge — ranked #172, a roughly 150-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.
Key context
- Fatigue load: Marco Cecchinato carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
- Surface form: Both 6 of 10 on clay recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 01:20 UTCCecchinato M.71%
Caniato C.29%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Clear favourite · Cecchinato M. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-match6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScoreForm & Matchup
6.8+148 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO3.2Clay Elo 1384
7.2Overall Elo 1555
ELO gap2.8Overall Elo 1376
5.0No prior meetings
H2H5.0No prior meetings
5.86 of last 10 on clay
Surface form5.86 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Statistics
Recent form61%1st serve in+1%62%
72%1st serve points won+1%71%
57%2nd serve points won+3%54%
66%Service points won+1%65%
38%Return points won+3%35%
68%Break points saved+9%59%
4.1Aces / match+0.74.8
2.9Double faults / match2.9
Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.