Andrea Guerrieri vs Charles BroomDublin Qualifying Final

Dublin · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Final
#231ATP
1526ELO
1463Grass ELO
27 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WLWWLWWWLW
Sets
Monday, 15 June 2026 ·
grass
COURT 2 · 2nd on
#279ATP
1434ELO
1420Grass ELO
28 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWLWLLLL
Guerrieri A.
vs
Broom C.

Andrea Guerrieri faces Charles Broom in the Dublin qualifying final on grass. Andrea Guerrieri holds the paper edge — ranked #231, a roughly 40-point grass Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC
Guerrieri A.60%
Broom C.40%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Guerrieri A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.5+44 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.5Grass Elo 1420
6.1Overall Elo 1526
ELO gap
3.9Overall Elo 1434
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
Surface form
6.26 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

31 vs 16 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
64%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
66%
78%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
46%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
58%
68%
Return points won·Slight edge
45%
38%
Break points saved·Even
63%
64%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.5
8.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.5
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 16). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Guerrieri A.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Broom C.

Broom C.serving82% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Guerrieri A.

Serve advantage — Broom C.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
71
78

Guerrieri A.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 76 games (7d) · Broom C.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 62 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

2nd on COURT 2 · not before Followed By · 1 match still to finish ahead

  1. 1Crawford O. v Visker N.
  2. 2Guerrieri A. v Broom C.This match
  3. 3Chidekh C. v Smith C.
  4. 4Ymer E. v Searle H.

Conditions

Weather forecast
17°COvercast
Wind 18 km/hHumidity 67%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.