Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio — Parma Round of 32
Parma · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#124ATP
1703ELO
1665Clay ELO
$223kYTD
$3.7MCAREER
30 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
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Sets
Monday, 15 June 2026 ·
clay
Sebastian Ofner faces Raul Brancaccio in the Parma round of 32 on clay. Sebastian Ofner holds the paper edge — ranked #124, a roughly 190-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.
Key context
- Fatigue load: Raul Brancaccio carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
- Surface form: Both 4 of 10 on clay recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 01:20 UTCOfner S.78%
Brancaccio R.22%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Clear favourite · Ofner S. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-match6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry ScoreForm & Matchup
7.3+185 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO2.7Clay Elo 1480
7.5Overall Elo 1702
ELO gap2.5Overall Elo 1503
4.8Split 1–1 on clay
H2H5.2Split 1–1 on clay
3.14 of last 10 on clay
Surface form4.04 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 4
Win streak0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Statistics
Recent form57%1st serve in+4%61%
76%1st serve points won+11%65%
52%2nd serve points won+2%50%
66%Service points won+7%59%
40%Return points won+2%42%
66%Break points saved+8%58%
6.5Aces / match+5.21.3
2.4Double faults / match+0.52.9
Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.