Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke — Nottingham Round of 32

Nottingham · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
Tristan Boyer
USASE
Tristan Boyer
#198ATP
1582ELO
1463Grass ELO
$90kYTD
$944kCAREER
25 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWLWLWWW
—
Sets
Monday, 15 June 2026 ·
grass
Court 2 · 3rd on
GBRQ
Jay Clarke
#247ATP
1465ELO
1354Grass ELO
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLLWLWWLW
Boyer T.
vs
Clarke J.

Tristan Boyer faces Jay Clarke in the Nottingham round of 32 on grass. Tristan Boyer holds the paper edge — ranked #198, a roughly 110-point grass Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC
Boyer T.78%
Clarke J.22%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Boyer T. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Freshness: Tristan Boyer comes in with 1 days of rest and 136 games in 14d, vs Jay Clarke's 1 and 17.
  • Under pressure: In the tight moments, Tristan Boyer has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 43 vs 10).

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Boyer T.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Clarke J.
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.4+109 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.6Grass Elo 1354
6.5Overall Elo 1582
ELO gap
3.5Overall Elo 1465
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.03 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
2.92 of last 10 on grass
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3.0Clay → Grass
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Boyer T.Stable
Clarke J.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

16 vs 25 matches

Statistics

This season
Boyer T.Clarke J.
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
65%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
47%
Service points won·Even
59%
60%
Return points won·Even
42%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
55%
64%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.9
4.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.8
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (16 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Boyer T.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Clarke J.

Clarke J.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Boyer T.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Boyer T.Clarke J.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
43
10
Break points saved·Clear edge
82
63
Break points won·Even
22
22
Deciding sets·Dominant
78
11
Tiebreaks·Even
7
4

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Boyer T.Clarke J.
Freshness·Dominant
52
89

Boyer T.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 95 games (7d) · Clarke J.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

3rd on Court 2 · not before Followed By · up next on court

  1. 3Boyer T. v Clarke J.This match
  2. 4Barrios Vera T. v Bonzi B.

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather forecast
18°COvercast
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 61%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.