Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter — Nottingham Round of 32
Nottingham · WTA · Round of 32
—
Sets
Monday, 15 June 2026 ·
grass
Harriet Dart faces Katie Boulter in the Nottingham round of 32 on grass. Katie Boulter holds the paper edge — ranked #73, leading the head-to-head 2–1, defending last year's quarter-final.
Key context
- Head-to-head: Katie Boulter leads the head-to-head 2–1. Last met at Wimbledon 2024.
- Fatigue load: Harriet Dart carries the heavier recent load — 3 three-setters to 2 in the past fortnight.
- Stage: Harriet Dart defends last year's round of 32; Katie Boulter defends last year's quarter-final.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 18:21 UTCDart H.20%
Boulter K.80%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Strong favourite · Boulter K. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-match5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry ScoreForm & Matchup
2.7Grass Elo 1552
Surface ELO7.3+182 Grass Elo edge
3.4Overall Elo 1620
ELO gap6.6Overall Elo 1816
5.2Split 1–1 on grass
H2H4.8Split 1–1 on grass
2.93 of last 10 on grass
Surface form6.16 of last 10 on grass
0.0
Win streak0.0
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Country comfort
6.9Won 82% in GB (22)
Context
6.0Reached the R32 here last year
Defending pts7.0Reached the quarters here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Conditions
Weather forecast
14°CClear
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 63%
Head to head
1–2| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-01 | Wimbledon | R64 | grass | Harriet Dart | 4-6 6-1 7-6(8) |
| 2024-06-10 | Nottingham | R32 | grass | Katie Boulter | 6-7(5) 6-4 7-5 |
| 2023-06-12 | Nottingham | QF | grass | Katie Boulter | 6-3 7-5 |
Statistics
Recent form55%1st serve in+5%60%
65%1st serve points won+2%67%
46%2nd serve points won46%
56%Service points won+3%59%
49%Return points won+3%46%
49%Break points saved+7%56%
1.4Aces / match+1.52.9
3.1Double faults / match+1.44.5
Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.