Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli — Parma Round of 32
Parma · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
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Sets
Monday, 15 June 2026 ·
clay
Alvaro Guillen Meza faces Federico Bondioli in the Parma round of 32 on clay. Alvaro Guillen Meza holds the paper edge — ranked #266, a roughly 110-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.
Key context
- Fatigue load: Both played two three-setters in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.
- Surface form: Both 3 of 10 on clay recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 01:20 UTCGuillen Meza A.67%
Bondioli F.33%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Slight edge · Guillen Meza A. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-match6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry ScoreForm & Matchup
6.4+113 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO3.6Clay Elo 1332
6.6Overall Elo 1464
ELO gap3.4Overall Elo 1338
5.0No prior meetings
H2H5.0No prior meetings
3.54 of last 10 on clay
Surface form3.84 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Statistics
Recent form65%1st serve in+2%63%
64%1st serve points won+3%67%
40%2nd serve points won+9%49%
56%Service points won+4%60%
44%Return points won+4%40%
50%Break points saved+7%57%
1.8Aces / match+1.33.1
5Double faults / match+1.53.5
Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.