Luca Nardi vs Remy BertolaNottingham Round of 32

Nottingham · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#159ATP
1608ELO
1440Grass ELO
$198kYTD
$2.3MCAREER
22 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLLWLWWLL
Sets
Monday, 15 June 2026 ·
grass
Court 5 · 1st on
#196ATP
1486ELO
1443Grass ELO
27 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWLWWLW
Nardi L.
vs
Bertola R.

Luca Nardi faces Remy Bertola in the Nottingham round of 32 on grass. Luca Nardi holds the paper edge — ranked #159.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC
Nardi L.63%
Bertola R.37%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Nardi L. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.0Grass Elo 1440
Surface ELO
5.0+3 Grass Elo edge
6.5Overall Elo 1608
ELO gap
3.5Overall Elo 1486
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
2.92 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
8.24 of last 5 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Nardi L.Sliding

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

18 vs 26 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
50%
Service points won·Even
62%
62%
Return points won·Even
37%
38%
Break points saved·Even
64%
61%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.3
4.2
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.4
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Nardi L.serving84% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Bertola R.

Bertola R.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Nardi L.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
39
16
Break points saved·Dominant
92
62
Break points won·Even
15
11
Deciding sets·Dominant
52
26
Tiebreaks·Even
30
29

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
64
65

Nardi L.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 53 games (7d) · Bertola R.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 33 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

1st on Court 5 · not before Starts At 11:00 · up next on court

  1. 1Nardi L. v Bertola R.This match
  2. 2Blanch D. v Zhang Z.
  3. 3Rocha H. v C. O'Connell

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather forecast
17°COvercast
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 59%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.