Mia Ristic vs Noemi Basiletti — Brescia Qualifying Final
Ristic M.
Mia Ristic faces Noemi Basiletti in the Brescia qualifying final on clay. Mia Ristic holds the paper edge — ranked #268, a roughly 20-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Ristic M. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Mia Ristic comes in with 10 days of rest and 31 games in 14d, vs Noemi Basiletti's 5 and 38.
- Last match: Mia Ristic handed Stefano Reitano a first-set bagel in a 6–0 6–2 win.
- Surface form: Both 4 of 10 on clay recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadRistic M.: 10 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Basiletti N.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 38 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
When it starts
2nd on CENTER COURT · not before Followed by · 1 match still to finish ahead
- 1Yaneva E. v Pedone G.
- 2Ristic M. v Basiletti N.This match
- 3Mazzola A. v Giovannini L.
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.