Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Lucas Poullain — Royan Round of 32
Royan · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
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Sets
Monday, 15 June 2026 ·
clay
Gilles Arnaud Bailly faces Lucas Poullain in the Royan round of 32 on clay. Gilles Arnaud Bailly is the paper favourite — ranked #208, a roughly 270-point clay Elo advantage — but Lucas Poullain arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 8 on clay to Gilles Arnaud Bailly's 4.
Key context
- Surface form: Gilles Arnaud Bailly 4 of 8, Lucas Poullain 5 of 8 on clay recently — Lucas Poullain the sharper of late.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 01:20 UTCBailly G.77%
Poullain L.23%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Clear favourite · Bailly G. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-match6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry ScoreForm & Matchup
8.3+267 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO1.7Clay Elo 1241
7.9Overall Elo 1538
ELO gap2.1Overall Elo 1308
5.0No prior meetings
H2H5.0No prior meetings
4.35 of last 10 on clay
Surface form5.46 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Statistics
Recent form62%1st serve in+7%69%
67%1st serve points won+1%66%
49%2nd serve points won+5%54%
60%Service points won+3%63%
38%Return points won+2%40%
62%Break points saved+7%55%
1.7Aces / match1.7
2.2Double faults / match+1.40.8
Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.