Miguel Damas vs Roberto Carballes Baena — Parma Round of 32
Parma · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
—
Sets
Monday, 15 June 2026 ·
clay
#191ATP
1617ELO
1600Clay ELO
$111kYTD
$6.3MCAREER
33 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLWLWWL
Miguel Damas faces Roberto Carballes Baena in the Parma round of 32 on clay. Roberto Carballes Baena holds the paper edge — ranked #191, a roughly 190-point clay Elo advantage.
Key context
- Fatigue load: Roberto Carballes Baena carries the heavier recent load — 4 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
- Surface form: Miguel Damas 2 of 10, Roberto Carballes Baena 7 of 10 on clay recently — Roberto Carballes Baena the sharper of late.
- Win streak: Roberto Carballes Baena arrives on a 4-match winning run.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 01:20 UTCDamas M.26%
Carballes Baena R.74%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Clear favourite · Carballes Baena R. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-match4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry ScoreForm & Matchup
2.6Clay Elo 1412
Surface ELO7.4+188 Clay Elo edge
2.8Overall Elo 1444
ELO gap7.2Overall Elo 1616
5.0No prior meetings
H2H5.0No prior meetings
2.02 of last 10 on clay
Surface form7.67 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count0.04 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Statistics
Recent form61%1st serve in+5%66%
59%1st serve points won+11%70%
48%2nd serve points won+1%49%
55%Service points won+8%63%
45%Return points won+7%38%
54%Break points saved+4%58%
1.1Aces / match+3.84.9
3.2Double faults / match+0.62.6
Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.