James Watt vs Alastair Gray — Nottingham Qualifying Final
Nottingham · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Final
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Sets
Sunday, 14 June 2026 ·
grass
COURT 4 · 1st on
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 20:22 UTCWatt J.45%
Gray A.55%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchForm & Matchup
5.4+35 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO4.6Grass Elo 1372
4.3Overall Elo 1348
ELO gap5.7Overall Elo 1407
5.0No prior meetings
H2H5.0No prior meetings
6.16 of last 10 on grass
Surface form5.55 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
When it starts
1st on COURT 4 · not before Starts At 11:00 · up next on court
- 1Watt J. v Gray A.This match
- 2Kwon S. v Matusevich A.
Conditions
Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather forecast
15°COvercast
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 57%
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Statistics
Recent form70%1st serve in+7%63%
72%1st serve points won+2%74%
51%2nd serve points won51%
66%Service points won+1%65%
34%Return points won+3%37%
60%Break points saved+8%68%
8.5Aces / match+1.57
2.2Double faults / match+0.52.7
Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Draw — qualifying
Final
Holmgren A.
Clarke J.
Watt J.
Gray A.
Bertola R.
Mccabe J.
Zhang Z.
Okonkwo O.
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