Jacob Fearnley vs Bu Yunchaokete — Ilkley Final
Ilkley · CHALLENGER · Final
#145ATP
1625ELO
1582Grass ELO
$214kYTD
$1.7MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLLLLWW
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Sets
Sunday, 14 June 2026 ·
grass
Jacob Fearnley faces Bu Yunchaokete in the Ilkley final on grass. Jacob Fearnley is the paper favourite — leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 110-point grass Elo advantage — but Bu Yunchaokete arrives in form, winning all 5 of their last grass matches to Jacob Fearnley's 4.
Key context
- Last match: Bu Yunchaokete won all two sets in tiebreaks against Dane Sweeny.
- Win streak: Both arrive in form — Jacob Fearnley on a 4-match run, Bu Yunchaokete on 8.
- Fatigue load: Both played three three-setters in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.
- Head-to-head: Jacob Fearnley leads the head-to-head 1–0, but this is their first meeting on grass. Last met at Madrid Masters 2025.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 20:22 UTCFearnley J.47%
Yunchaokete B.53%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchForm & Matchup
6.4+113 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO3.6Grass Elo 1469
4.7Overall Elo 1625
ELO gap5.3Overall Elo 1653
7.0Leads 1–0 on grass
H2H3.0Trails 0–1 on grass
6.66 of last 10 on grass
Surface form8.78 of last 10 on grass
7.04-match win streak
Win streak10.08-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count0.03 three-setters in 14 days
8.2Home country · 7/10 here
Country comfortContext
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Conditions
Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather forecast
18°COvercast
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 51%
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-23 | Madrid Masters | R128 | clay | Jacob Fearnley | 6-3 7-6(2) |
Statistics
Recent form63%1st serve in+3%60%
67%1st serve points won+6%73%
45%2nd serve points won+15%60%
59%Service points won+9%68%
38%Return points won+3%35%
53%Break points saved+13%66%
5.2Aces / match+0.96.1
5.6Double faults / match+4.41.2
Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Draw
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Fearnley J.
Yunchaokete B.