Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel — Bratislava Final

Bratislava · CHALLENGER · Final
Alexander Shevchenko
KAZ
Alexander Shevchenko
#97ATP
1698ELO
1641Clay ELO
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLWLLLW
—
Sets
Sunday, 14 June 2026 ·
clay
Taro Daniel
JPN
Taro Daniel
#293ATP
1495ELO
1454Clay ELO
33 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWWWLWWW

Alexander Shevchenko faces Taro Daniel in the Bratislava final on clay. Alexander Shevchenko is the paper favourite — ranked #97, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 190-point clay Elo advantage — but Taro Daniel arrives in form, winning 9 of their last 10 on clay to Alexander Shevchenko's 6.

Key context

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:21 UTC
Shevchenko A.86%
Daniel T.14%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Shevchenko A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Shevchenko A.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Daniel T.
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.3+187 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.7Clay Elo 1454
7.5Overall Elo 1698
ELO gap
2.5Overall Elo 1495
5.0First meeting on clay
H2H
5.0First meeting on clay
6.86 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
9.29 of last 10 on clay
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
9.06-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
5.0Opponent hot: 9 of last 10
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather forecast
21°COvercast
Wind 18 km/hHumidity 49%

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-09-17ChengduQFhardAlexander Shevchenko7-6(2) 3-6 6-2

Statistics

Recent form
Shevchenko A.Daniel T.
62%1st serve in+1%63%
68%1st serve points won+1%67%
52%2nd serve points won52%
62%Service points won+1%61%
36%Return points won+1%37%
62%Break points saved+1%63%
5.8Aces / match+1.14.7
1.1Double faults / match+0.21.3

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Draw

R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Shevchenko A.[1]
Jianu F.
6-43-0
Barton H.[3]
Gadamauri B.[2]
4-67-626-1
Krumich M.[4]
Mrva M.
6-734-6
Kuzmanov D.[9]
Tseng C.[8]
6-781-6
Shelbayh A.[7]
Brunclik P.
6-722-6
Pereira T.
Martin A.
7-53-64-6
Sachko V.
Watanuki Y.
6-27-64
Kokkinakis T.
Barrios Vera T.[5]
6-46-4
Kolar Z.[6]
Jung J.
6-36-1
Pokorny L.
Barrena A.
6-16-4
Cina F.
Topo M.
6-36-2
Gombos N.
Choinski J.[3]
3-64-6
Piros Z.[7]
Santillan A.[6]
7-657-5
Reis Da Silva J.
Donski A.
6-26-4
Daniel T.[8]
Skatov T.
6-36-3
Boscardin Dias P.
Nava E.[2]
5-76-31-6
Shevchenko A.[1]
Barton H.[3]
4-66-37-5
Mrva M.
Tseng C.[8]
6-36-4
Brunclik P.
Martin A.
6-47-65
Sachko V.
Kokkinakis T.
5-2
Kolar Z.[6]
Pokorny L.
6-46-4
Cina F.
Choinski J.[3]
6-17-5
Piros Z.[7]
Reis Da Silva J.
6-26-4
Daniel T.[8]
Nava E.[2]
6-16-3
Shevchenko A.[1]
Mrva M.
7-696-0
Brunclik P.
Sachko V.
6-33-62-6
Kolar Z.[6]
Cina F.
6-44-63-6
Piros Z.[7]
Daniel T.[8]
3-63-6
Shevchenko A.[1]
Sachko V.
6-46-3
Cina F.
Daniel T.[8]
6-766-02-6
Shevchenko A.
Daniel T.