August Holmgren vs Jay Clarke — Nottingham Qualifying Final

Nottingham · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Final
DEN
August Holmgren
#148ATP
1549ELO
1615Grass ELO
$66kYTD
$580kCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWLWLWWLW
—
Sets
Sunday, 14 June 2026 ·
grass
GBR
Jay Clarke
#247ATP
1465ELO
1354Grass ELO
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLWLWWLWW

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:22 UTC
Holmgren A.83%
Clarke J.17%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Holmgren A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Holmgren A.
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Clarke J.
4.3
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
8.3+261 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.7Grass Elo 1354
6.1Overall Elo 1549
ELO gap
3.9Overall Elo 1465
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.58 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
2.12 of last 10 on grass
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather forecast
15°COvercast
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 57%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form
Holmgren A.Clarke J.
64%1st serve in+5%59%
74%1st serve points won+3%71%
51%2nd serve points won+3%48%
66%Service points won+5%61%
37%Return points won+4%41%
65%Break points saved65%
8.6Aces / match+4.14.5
3.3Double faults / match+0.62.7

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Draw — qualifying