Daria Kasatkina vs Anna Blinkova — Nottingham Qualifying Semi-final
Nottingham · WTA · Qualifying Semi-final
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Sets
Saturday, 13 June 2026 ·
grass
Daria Kasatkina faces Anna Blinkova in the Nottingham qualifying semi-final on grass. Daria Kasatkina holds the paper edge — ranked #66, leading the head-to-head 2–0, a roughly 130-point grass Elo advantage.
Key context
- Head-to-head: Daria Kasatkina leads the head-to-head 2–0, but this is their first meeting on grass. Last met at Montreal 2025.
- Stage: Anna Blinkova defends last year's round of 16.
- Fatigue load: Daria Kasatkina carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 23:21 UTCKasatkina D.77%
Blinkova A.23%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Clear favourite · Kasatkina D. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-match6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScoreForm & Matchup
6.6+128 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO3.4Grass Elo 1589
6.5Overall Elo 1823
ELO gap3.5Overall Elo 1682
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H5.0First meeting on grass
3.84 of last 10 on grass
Surface form5.15 of last 10 on grass
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set countContext
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts6.0Reached the last 16 here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Head to head
2–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-27 | Montreal | R64 | hard | Daria Kasatkina | 6-1 6-4 |
| 2023-08-07 | Montreal | R32 | hard | Daria Kasatkina | 6-2 7-5 |
Statistics
Recent form69%1st serve in+9%60%
57%1st serve points won+1%58%
41%2nd serve points won+1%42%
52%Service points won52%
50%Return points won+6%44%
52%Break points saved52%
1.7Aces / match+0.51.2
6.3Double faults / match+2.53.8
Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.