Mingge Xu vs Kimberly Birrell — Nottingham Qualifying Semi-final
Nottingham · WTA · Qualifying Semi-final
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Sets
Saturday, 13 June 2026 ·
grass
Mingge Xu faces Kimberly Birrell in the Nottingham qualifying semi-final on grass. Kimberly Birrell holds the paper edge — ranked #74, defending last year's round of 32, a roughly 260-point grass Elo advantage.
Key context
- Fatigue load: Mingge Xu carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
- Stage: Mingge Xu defends last year's round of 16; Kimberly Birrell defends last year's round of 32.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 23:21 UTCXu M.15%
Birrell K.85%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Strong favourite · Birrell K. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-match4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry ScoreForm & Matchup
1.8Grass Elo 1356
Surface ELO8.2+256 Grass Elo edge
2.1Overall Elo 1420
ELO gap7.9Overall Elo 1752
5.0No prior meetings
H2H5.0No prior meetings
2.73 of last 10 on grass
Surface form4.04 of last 10 on grass
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year
Defending pts6.0Reached the R32 here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Statistics
Recent form56%1st serve in+8%64%
66%1st serve points won+3%63%
44%2nd serve points won+2%42%
56%Service points won56%
43%Return points won+3%46%
52%Break points saved+4%56%
2.8Aces / match+0.91.9
5.1Double faults / match+0.75.8
Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.