Guido Ivan Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi — San Miguel De Tucuman Semi-final

San Miguel De Tucuman · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
ARG
Guido Ivan Justo
#254ATP
1423ELO
1415Clay ELO
28 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
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Sets
Saturday, 13 June 2026 ·
clay
ARG
Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi
#408ATP
1298ELO
1290Clay ELO
22 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
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Guido Ivan Justo faces Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi in the San Miguel De Tucuman semi-final on clay. Guido Ivan Justo holds the paper edge — ranked #254, a roughly 120-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Key context

  • Fatigue load: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
  • Win streak: Both arrive on three-match winning runs.
  • Surface form: Both 6 of 10 on clay recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:21 UTC
Justo G.64%
Ambrogi L.36%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Justo G. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Justo G.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Ambrogi L.
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.6+125 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.4Clay Elo 1290
6.6Overall Elo 1423
ELO gap
3.4Overall Elo 1298
8.2Leads 3–0 on clay
H2H
1.8Trails 0–3 on clay
6.56 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.66 of last 10 on clay
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
10.0Home country · 3/3 here
Country comfort
10.0Home country · 3/3 here
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather forecast
13°CPartly cloudy
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 89%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form
Justo G.Ambrogi L.
68%1st serve in+11%57%
62%1st serve points won+6%68%
50%2nd serve points won50%
58%Service points won+2%60%
44%Return points won+2%42%
57%Break points saved+1%58%
0.9Aces / match+1.92.8
1.4Double faults / match+0.62

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Draw

R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Justo G.
Aguilar Cardozo J.
6-26-3
Heredia S.
Casanova H.
2-63-6
Cigarran T.
Aboian V.
Estevez J.
Soto M.
6-46-2
Torres J.
Zarate C.
1-66-73
Zeitune M.
A. Huertas Del Pino Cordova
7-614-65-7
Bennani K.
Rodriguez Taverna S.
3-66-31-6
Gomez J.
Ambrogi L.
2-64-6
Villalon N.
Rodriguez L.
2-67-653-6
Dickerson R.
Pucinelli De Almeida M.
1-61-6
Ribeiro E.
De La Fuente S.
6-37-5
Rodriguez Rodriguez J.
La Serna J.
3-66-07-5
Kicker N.
Martinez T.
6-06-4
Hardt N.
Fernandez B.
7-56-2
Goity Zapico S.
Coria F.
5-77-56-77
Cundom J.
Collarini A.
2-64-6
Justo G.
Casanova H.
6-34-66-4
Cigarran T.
Estevez J.
6-756-36-2
Zarate C.
A. Huertas Del Pino Cordova
6-37-66
Rodriguez Taverna S.
Ambrogi L.
5-77-630-6
Rodriguez L.
Pucinelli De Almeida M.
2-62-6
Ribeiro E.
Rodriguez Rodriguez J.
6-04-64-6
Kicker N.
Hardt N.
6-27-5
Coria F.
Collarini A.
7-657-5
Justo G.
Cigarran T.
6-46-4
Zarate C.
Ambrogi L.
2-66-14-6
Pucinelli De Almeida M.
Rodriguez Rodriguez J.
5-74-6
Kicker N.
Coria F.
7-53-0
Justo G.
Ambrogi L.
Rodriguez Rodriguez J.
Kicker N.
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