Celine Naef vs Harmony Tan — Ilkley Quarter-final

Ilkley · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
SUI
Celine Naef
#206WTA
1623ELO
1569Grass ELO
20 yrs · 167 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLWLWLL
0 — 0
Sets
Live · Set 1
Friday, 12 June 2026 ·
grass
Harmony Tan
FRA
Harmony Tan
#210WTA
1539ELO
1516Grass ELO
28 yrs · 171 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLWWLWL
LiveSet 1
Naef C.
3
0
0
Tan H.
4
0
0

Celine Naef faces Harmony Tan in the Ilkley quarter-final on grass. Celine Naef holds the paper edge — ranked #206, a roughly 50-point grass Elo advantage. Recent grass form is closely matched.

Key context

  • Fatigue load: Celine Naef carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
  • Win streak: Both arrive on three-match winning runs.
  • Surface form: Both 4 of 4 on grass recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:20 UTC
Naef C.63%
Tan H.37%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Naef C. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Naef C.
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Tan H.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.7+52 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.3Grass Elo 1516
5.3Overall Elo 1622
ELO gap
4.7Overall Elo 1539
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.47 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.56 of last 10 on grass
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather
17°CMainly clear
Wind 34 km/hHumidity 56%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form
Naef C.Tan H.
61%1st serve in+9%52%
69%1st serve points won+1%68%
47%2nd serve points won+3%50%
60%Service points won+1%59%
47%Return points won+1%46%
58%Break points saved+5%63%
3.7Aces / match+1.22.5
3.5Double faults / match+12.5

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Draw

R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Golubic V.
D. Britton
6-36-3
Martincova T.
Swan K.
5-72-6
Dudeney A.
Sakatsume H.
6-46-3
Kalieva E.
Krueger A.
2-62-6
Vidmanova D.
Fruhvirtova L.
6-767-6106-2
Stefanini L.
Valdmannova V.
6-46-3
Xu M.
Mandlik E.
6-44-61-6
Jones E.
Galfi D.
6-767-625-7
Sun L.
Mcdonald E.
2-66-26-2
Day K.
Stoiana M.
5-74-6
Podrez V.
Prozorova T.
4-62-6
Klimovicova L.
Kraus S.
2-63-6
Korneeva A.
Naef C.
4-65-7
Sawangkaew M.
Urhobo A.
6-730-6
Preston T.
Tan H.
6-43-61-6
Shymanovich I.
Tararudee L.
6-766-75
Golubic V.
Swan K.
4-66-75
Dudeney A.
Krueger A.
4-66-32-6
Vidmanova D.
Stefanini L.
6-26-1
Mandlik E.
Galfi D.
6-46-4
Sun L.
Stoiana M.
2-63-6
Prozorova T.
Kraus S.
6-46-3
Naef C.
Urhobo A.
6-36-4
Tan H.
Tararudee L.
6-27-63
Swan K.
Krueger A.
1-60-0
Vidmanova D.
Mandlik E.
6-724-2
Stoiana M.
Prozorova T.
7-56-1
Naef C.
Tan H.
Krueger A.
—
Stoiana M.
—
—