Katie Swan vs Ashlyn Krueger — Ilkley

Ilkley · CHALLENGER
Katie Swan
GBR
Katie Swan
#200WTA
1506ELO
1444Grass ELO
27 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWWWWWW
—
Sets
Friday, 12 June 2026 ·
grass
USA
Ashlyn Krueger
#113WTA
1711ELO
1576Grass ELO
22 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWWWWLW

Katie Swan faces Ashlyn Krueger in the Ilkley match on grass. Ashlyn Krueger holds the paper edge — ranked #113, a roughly 130-point grass Elo advantage. Recent grass form is closely matched.

Key context

  • Last match: Katie Swan edged Viktorija Golubic in two tight sets (6–4 7–6).
  • Fatigue load: Ashlyn Krueger carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
  • Surface form: Both 3 of 4 on grass recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:21 UTC
Swan K.18%
Krueger A.82%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Krueger A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Swan K.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Krueger A.
7.5
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.3Grass Elo 1444
Surface ELO
6.7+132 Grass Elo edge
4.1Overall Elo 1506
ELO gap
5.9Overall Elo 1711
3.0Trails 0–1 on grass
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on grass
3.73 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
7.37 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
5.2Home country · 2/10 here
Country comfort
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather forecast
17°CPartly cloudy
Wind 31 km/hHumidity 57%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form
Swan K.Krueger A.
67%1st serve in67%
68%1st serve points won+4%64%
46%2nd serve points won46%
61%Service points won+3%58%
48%Return points won+7%41%
59%Break points saved+2%57%
2.6Aces / match+35.6
3.5Double faults / match+1.55

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Draw