Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri — Cattolica Quarter-final
Cattolica · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
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Sets
Friday, 12 June 2026 ·
clay
Francesco Forti faces Andrea Guerrieri in the Cattolica quarter-final on clay. Andrea Guerrieri is the paper favourite — ranked #231, a roughly 210-point clay Elo advantage — but Francesco Forti rides a 4-match win streak. Recent clay form is closely matched.
Key context
- Last match: Andrea Guerrieri edged Alexander Vasilev in two tight sets (7–6 7–5).
- Fatigue load: Francesco Forti carries the heavier recent load — 4 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
- Win streak: Francesco Forti arrives on a 4-match winning run.
- Surface form: Francesco Forti 7 of 10, Andrea Guerrieri 8 of 10 on clay recently — Andrea Guerrieri the sharper of late.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 20:20 UTCForti F.17%
Guerrieri A.83%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Strong favourite · Guerrieri A. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-match6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score7.9
Dominant favouriteUmpiry ScoreForm & Matchup
2.4Clay Elo 1288
Surface ELO7.6+206 Clay Elo edge
2.5Overall Elo 1324
ELO gap7.5Overall Elo 1526
5.0No prior meetings
H2H5.0No prior meetings
7.77 of last 10 on clay
Surface form8.18 of last 10 on clay
7.04-match win streak
Win streakFatigue & Travel
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count7.01 three-setter in 14 days
8.0Home country · 4/6 here
Country comfort10.0Home country · 2/2 here
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Conditions
Weather forecast
23°COvercast
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 48%
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Statistics
Recent form65%1st serve in+4%61%
72%1st serve points won+5%67%
52%2nd serve points won+6%46%
65%Service points won+6%59%
35%Return points won+11%46%
61%Break points saved+4%65%
6.8Aces / match+4.91.9
1.9Double faults / match+2.84.7
Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Draw
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
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