Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter — London Quarter-final

London · WTA · Quarter-final

KAZ

Elena Rybakina

#2WTA

2175ELO

1921Grass ELO

$4.2MYTD

$29MCAREER

26 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLWLWWWLWW

—

Sets

Friday, 12 June 2026 · 16:40

grass

GBR

Katie Boulter

#73WTA

1816ELO

1734Grass ELO

29 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWLWLWLWLW

Elena Rybakina faces Katie Boulter in the London quarter-final on grass. Elena Rybakina holds the paper edge — ranked #2, leading the head-to-head 2–0, a roughly 190-point grass Elo advantage.

Key context

Last match: Elena Rybakina dropped the opening set before beating Tatjana Maria 6–7 7–5 6–0.
Last match: Katie Boulter dropped just 4 games past J. Cristian.
Head-to-head: Elena Rybakina leads the head-to-head 2–0, 1–0 on grass. Last met at Indian Wells 2025.
Fatigue load: Both played one three-setter in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:21 UTC

Rybakina E.89%

Boulter K.11%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Rybakina E. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Rybakina E.

6.7

Slight advantageUmpiry Score

Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)

Boulter K.

5.8

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

7.3+187 Grass Elo edge

Surface ELO

2.7Grass Elo 1734

8.7Overall Elo 2174

ELO gap

1.3Overall Elo 1816

7.0Leads 1–0 on grass

H2H

3.0Trails 0–1 on grass

6.87 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

6.06 of last 10 on grass

0.0

Win streak

Fatigue & Travel

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

6.8Won 80% in GBR (30)

Country comfort

7.4Home country · 13/23 here

3.0Clay → Grass

Surface transition

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather forecast

21°CPartly cloudy

Wind 23 km/hHumidity 59%

Head to head

2–0

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2025-03-05	Indian Wells	R32	hard	Elena Rybakina	6-0 7-5
2023-07-03	Wimbledon	R32	grass	Elena Rybakina	6-1 6-1

View full head-to-head →

Statistics

Recent form

Rybakina E.Boulter K.

60%1st serve in60%

72%1st serve points won+5%67%

53%2nd serve points won+7%46%

65%Service points won+6%59%

41%Return points won+5%46%

66%Break points saved+10%56%

6.6Aces / match+3.72.9

2.4Double faults / match+2.14.5

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Draw

R32

R16

Quarter-finals

Semi-finals

Final