Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex De Minaur

s Hertogenbosch · ATP

FRA

Benjamin Bonzi

#99ATP

1733ELO

1635Grass ELO

$263kYTD

$4.4MCAREER

30 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

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Sets

Friday, 12 June 2026 · 10:00

grass

AUS

Alex De Minaur

#6ATP

1979ELO

1825Grass ELO

$2.0MYTD

$25MCAREER

27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

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Benjamin Bonzi faces Alex De Minaur in the s Hertogenbosch match on grass. Alex De Minaur is the paper favourite — ranked #6, leading the head-to-head 3–1, a roughly 190-point grass Elo advantage — but Benjamin Bonzi rides a 4-match win streak.

Key context

Last match: Alex De Minaur edged Martin Damm in two tight sets (7–6 7–5).
Head-to-head: Alex De Minaur leads the head-to-head 3–1, but this is their first meeting on grass. Last met at Marseille 2023.
Fatigue load: Benjamin Bonzi carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
Win streak: Benjamin Bonzi arrives on a 4-match winning run.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:21 UTC

Bonzi B.16%

De Minaur A.84%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · De Minaur A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Bonzi B.

4.8

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

De Minaur A.

7.4

Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

2.6Grass Elo 1635

Surface ELO

7.4+190 Grass Elo edge

1.9Overall Elo 1732

ELO gap

8.1Overall Elo 1978

5.0First meeting on grass

H2H

5.0First meeting on grass

7.57 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

7.57 of last 10 on grass

7.04-match win streak

Win streak

Fatigue & Travel

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather forecast

16°COvercast

Wind 16 km/hHumidity 92%

Head to head

1–3

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2023-02-20	Marseille	QF	hard	Benjamin Bonzi	6-2 6-4
2023-01-16	Australian Open	R32	hard	Alex De Minaur	7-6(0) 6-2 6-1
2022-10-17	Stockholm	R32	hard	Alex De Minaur	6-3 6-1
2022-09-15	Davis Cup Finals RR: FRA vs AUS	RR	hard	Alex De Minaur	6-3 1-6 6-4

View full head-to-head →

Statistics

Recent form

Bonzi B.De Minaur A.

67%1st serve in+9%58%

71%1st serve points won71%

52%2nd serve points won+4%56%

65%Service points won65%

37%Return points won+2%39%

66%Break points saved+3%63%

3.2Aces / match+1.14.3

1.3Double faults / match+1.42.7

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex De Minaur — s Hertogenbosch