Raul Brancaccio vs Roberto Carballes Baena

Cattolica · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final

ITA

Raul Brancaccio

#237ATP

1503ELO

1480Clay ELO

29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWLLLLLWWL

—

Sets

Friday, 12 June 2026 · 10:00

clay

ESP

Roberto Carballes Baena

#191ATP

1617ELO

1600Clay ELO

$111kYTD

$6.3MCAREER

33 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWLWLWWLLL

Raul Brancaccio faces Roberto Carballes Baena in the Cattolica quarter-final on clay. Roberto Carballes Baena holds the paper edge — ranked #191, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 120-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Key context

Last match: Raul Brancaccio dropped just 6 games past Liam Broady.
Fatigue load: Roberto Carballes Baena carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
Head-to-head: Roberto Carballes Baena leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at Rome Masters 2021.
Surface form: Raul Brancaccio 4 of 10, Roberto Carballes Baena 5 of 10 on clay recently — Roberto Carballes Baena the sharper of late.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:20 UTC

Brancaccio R.34%

Carballes Baena R.66%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Carballes Baena R. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Brancaccio R.

5.9

Even matchUmpiry Score

Carballes Baena R.

6.9

Slight advantageUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

3.5Clay Elo 1480

Surface ELO

6.5+120 Clay Elo edge

3.6Overall Elo 1503

ELO gap

6.4Overall Elo 1616

5.0First meeting on clay

H2H

5.0First meeting on clay

4.54 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

5.85 of last 10 on clay

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

7.6Home country · 3/5 here

Country comfort

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather forecast

23°COvercast

Wind 12 km/hHumidity 48%

Head to head

0–1

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2021-05-10	Rome Masters	Q2	clay	Roberto Carballes Baena	7-5 6-4

Statistics

Recent form

Brancaccio R.Carballes Baena R.

61%1st serve in+5%66%

65%1st serve points won+5%70%

50%2nd serve points won+1%49%

59%Service points won+4%63%

42%Return points won+4%38%

58%Break points saved58%

1.3Aces / match+3.64.9

2.9Double faults / match+0.32.6

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Raul Brancaccio vs Roberto Carballes Baena — Cattolica Quarter-final