Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi — San Miguel De Tucuman Quarter-final

San Miguel De Tucuman · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
ARG
Carlos Maria Zarate
#467ATP
1163ELO
1149Clay ELO
21 yrs
Last 10
WWLLLWWLLW
—
Sets
Friday, 12 June 2026 ·
clay
ARG
Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi
#408ATP
1298ELO
1290Clay ELO
22 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWLWLLWW

Carlos Maria Zarate faces Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi in the San Miguel De Tucuman quarter-final on clay. Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi holds the paper edge — ranked #408, a roughly 140-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Key context

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:20 UTC
Zarate C.20%
Ambrogi L.80%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Ambrogi L. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Zarate C.
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Ambrogi L.
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
3.2Clay Elo 1149
Surface ELO
6.8+141 Clay Elo edge
3.3Overall Elo 1163
ELO gap
6.7Overall Elo 1298
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.15 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.36 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
10.0Home country · 2/2 here
Country comfort
10.0Home country · 2/2 here
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather forecast
13°COvercast
Wind 2 km/hHumidity 91%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form
Zarate C.Ambrogi L.
58%1st serve in+1%57%
65%1st serve points won+3%68%
47%2nd serve points won+3%50%
57%Service points won+3%60%
40%Return points won+2%42%
60%Break points saved+2%58%
2.8Aces / match2.8
3.2Double faults / match+1.22

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Draw

R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Justo G.
Aguilar Cardozo J.
6-26-3
Heredia S.
Casanova H.
2-63-6
Cigarran T.
Leite W.
6-46-3
Estevez J.
Soto M.
6-46-2
Torres J.
Zarate C.
1-66-73
Zeitune M.
A. Huertas Del Pino Cordova
7-614-65-7
Bennani K.
Rodriguez Taverna S.
3-66-31-6
Gomez J.
Ambrogi L.
2-64-6
Villalon N.
Rodriguez L.
2-67-653-6
Dickerson R.
Pucinelli De Almeida M.
1-61-6
Ribeiro E.
De La Fuente S.
6-37-5
Rodriguez Rodriguez J.
La Serna J.
3-66-07-5
Kicker N.
Martinez T.
6-06-4
Hardt N.
Fernandez B.
7-56-2
Goity Zapico S.
Coria F.
5-77-56-77
Cundom J.
Collarini A.
2-64-6
Justo G.
Casanova H.
6-34-66-4
Cigarran T.
Estevez J.
5-5
Zarate C.
A. Huertas Del Pino Cordova
6-37-66
Rodriguez Taverna S.
Ambrogi L.
5-77-630-6
Rodriguez L.
Pucinelli De Almeida M.
2-62-6
Ribeiro E.
Rodriguez Rodriguez J.
6-04-64-6
Kicker N.
Hardt N.
Coria F.
Collarini A.
4-4
Justo G.
—
Zarate C.
Ambrogi L.
Pucinelli De Almeida M.
Rodriguez Rodriguez J.
—
—
—
—