Coria vs Collarini — San Miguel De Tucuman Round of 16

San Miguel De Tucuman · CHALLENGER · Round of 16

ARG

Federico Coria

#999ATP

1567ELO

1546Clay ELO

34 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLLWLLWLWL

—

Sets

Thursday, 11 June 2026 · 10:00

clay

ARG

Andrea Collarini

#304ATP

1428ELO

1413Clay ELO

34 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed

Last 10

WLWLWLLWLL

Federico Coria faces Andrea Collarini in the San Miguel De Tucuman round of 16 on clay. Andrea Collarini holds the paper edge — ranked #304. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Key context

Last match: Andrea Collarini dropped just 6 games past Julian Cundom.
Last match: Federico Coria edged Segundo Goity Zapico in three tight sets (7–5 5–7 7–6).
Fatigue load: Federico Coria carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
Surface form: Both 4 of 10 on clay recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:22 UTC

Coria F.69%

Collarini A.31%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Coria F. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Coria F.

5.6

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Collarini A.

4.9

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

6.7+133 Clay Elo edge

Surface ELO

3.3Clay Elo 1413

6.7Overall Elo 1567

ELO gap

3.3Overall Elo 1428

5.0First meeting on clay

H2H

5.0First meeting on clay

4.34 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

5.25 of last 10 on clay

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

6.8Home country · 8/17 here

Country comfort

6.0Home country · 3/9 here

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather forecast

14°CRain

Wind 11 km/hHumidity 97%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form

Coria F.Collarini A.

67%1st serve in+4%63%

62%1st serve points won+3%65%

46%2nd serve points won+4%50%

57%Service points won+3%60%

42%Return points won+1%41%

59%Break points saved+7%52%

1.3Aces / match1.3

3.5Double faults / match+0.53

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Draw

R32

R16

Quarter-finals

Semi-finals

Final

Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini — San Miguel De Tucuman Round of 16