Justo vs Casanova — San Miguel De Tucuman Round of 16

San Miguel De Tucuman · CHALLENGER · Round of 16

ARG

Guido Ivan Justo

#254ATP

1423ELO

1415Clay ELO

28 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLLWLWLWWW

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Sets

Thursday, 11 June 2026 · 10:00

clay

ARG

Hernan Casanova

#406ATP

1419ELO

1405Clay ELO

32 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLLLWWLWWW

Guido Ivan Justo faces Hernan Casanova in the San Miguel De Tucuman round of 16 on clay. Guido Ivan Justo holds the paper edge — ranked #254. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Key context

Last match: Guido Ivan Justo dropped just 5 games past Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo.
Last match: Hernan Casanova dropped just 5 games past Samuel Heredia.
Surface form: Both 6 of 10 on clay recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:20 UTC

Justo G.51%

Casanova H.49%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Justo G.

6.9

Slight advantageUmpiry Score

Casanova H.

5.4

Clear underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

5.1+10 Clay Elo edge

Surface ELO

4.9Clay Elo 1405

5.0Overall Elo 1423

ELO gap

5.0Overall Elo 1419

7.0Leads 1–0 on clay

H2H

3.0Trails 0–1 on clay

5.76 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

5.56 of last 10 on clay

Fatigue & Travel

10.0Home country · 1/1 here

Country comfort

6.2Home country · 3/8 here

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.