Taverna vs Ambrogi — San Miguel De Tucuman Round of 16

San Miguel De Tucuman · CHALLENGER · Round of 16

ARG

Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna

#383ATP

1325ELO

1316Clay ELO

26 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

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Sets

Thursday, 11 June 2026 · 10:00

clay

ARG

Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi

#408ATP

1298ELO

1290Clay ELO

22 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

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Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna faces Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi in the San Miguel De Tucuman round of 16 on clay. Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna holds the paper edge — ranked #383, a roughly 30-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Key context

Last match: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi dropped just 6 games past Juan Sebastian Gomez.
Fatigue load: Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
Surface form: Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna 5 of 10, Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 6 of 10 on clay recently — Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi the sharper of late.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 02:21 UTC

Rodriguez Taverna S.44%

Ambrogi L.56%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Rodriguez Taverna S.

6.3

Marginal edgeUmpiry Score

Ambrogi L.

6.8

Slight advantageUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

5.3+26 Clay Elo edge

Surface ELO

4.7Clay Elo 1290

5.3Overall Elo 1325

ELO gap

4.7Overall Elo 1298

2.2Trails 0–2 on clay

H2H

7.8Leads 2–0 on clay

5.05 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

5.35 of last 10 on clay

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

7.0Home country · 1/2 here

Country comfort

10.0Home country · 1/1 here

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.