Rodriguez vs Almeida — San Miguel De Tucuman Round of 16

San Miguel De Tucuman · CHALLENGER · Round of 16

ARG

Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez

#462ATP

1226ELO

1217Clay ELO

26 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLLLLWWLLL

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Sets

Thursday, 11 June 2026 · 10:00

clay

BRA

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

#419ATP

1398ELO

1391Clay ELO

25 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLWLWLWLWW

Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez faces Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida in the San Miguel De Tucuman round of 16 on clay. Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida holds the paper edge — ranked #419, a roughly 170-point clay Elo advantage.

Key context

Last match: Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida dropped just 2 games past Ryan Dickerson.
Surface form: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez 3 of 10, Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida 6 of 10 on clay recently — Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida the sharper of late.
Fatigue load: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:20 UTC

Rodriguez L.25%

Pucinelli De Almeida M.75%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Pucinelli De Almeida M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Rodriguez L.

4.6

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Pucinelli De Almeida M.

7.2

Strong advantageUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

2.8Clay Elo 1217

Surface ELO

7.2+175 Clay Elo edge

2.9Overall Elo 1226

ELO gap

7.1Overall Elo 1398

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

3.43 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

5.96 of last 10 on clay

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

10.0Home country · 1/1 here

Country comfort

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.