Ella Mcdonald vs Ranah Akua Stoiber — Ilkley Qualifying Final
Ilkley · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Final
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 8 June 2026 ·
grass
Ella Mcdonald won five games in a row to see off Ranah Akua Stoiber 6-2 6-4 in the Ilkley qualifying final.
Key context
- Set 1, game 3: A 13-point game with four deuces went Ella Mcdonald's way.
- Set 2, game 3: Ella Mcdonald broke serve.
- Pressure points: Ella Mcdonald converted 4 of 11 break points; Ranah Akua Stoiber converted 1 of 1 break points.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 10:21 UTCMcdonald E.34%
Stoiber R.66%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Slight edge · Stoiber R. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchForm & Matchup
5.4+29 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO4.6Grass Elo 1320
5.8Overall Elo 1295
ELO gap4.2Overall Elo 1372
5.0No prior meetings
H2H5.0No prior meetings
5.14 of last 8 on grass
Surface form3.73 of last 9 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count10.0Home country · 1/1 here
Country comfort10.0Home country · 1/1 here
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Mcdonald E.
662
Stoiber R.
240
Conditions
Weather
13°COvercast
Wind 23 km/hHumidity 75%
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Statistics
Recent form62%1st serve in+8%54%
64%1st serve points won+2%62%
42%2nd serve points won+3%45%
56%Service points won+2%54%
45%Return points won+2%43%
53%Break points saved+8%61%
1.9Aces / match+0.52.4
5.3Double faults / match+2.33
Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Draw — qualifying
Final
Mcdonald E.
Stoiber R.
6-26-4
Shymanovich I.
Martincova T.
Valdmannova V.
Naef C.
Mcdonald E.
Tan H.
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