Lorenzo Giustino vs Daniel Rincon

Lyon · CHALLENGER · Round of 32

ITA

Lorenzo Giustino

#211ATP

1448ELO

1383Clay ELO

34 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LLWLLLLWLL

0 — 2

Sets

Monday, 8 June 2026 · 17:25

clay

Court 3 · 3rd on

ESPALT

Daniel Rincon

#283ATP

1470ELO

1407Clay ELO

23 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LLLLWWWLLW

Daniel Rincon won eight games in a row to see off Lorenzo Giustino 6-2 6-4 in the Lyon round of 32.

Key context

Set 1, game 5: Daniel Rincon broke serve.
Set 2, game 1: Daniel Rincon broke serve.
Pressure points: Lorenzo Giustino converted 1 of 1 break points; Daniel Rincon converted 4 of 5 break points.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:21 UTC

Giustino L.43%

Rincon D.57%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Giustino L.

5.6

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Rincon D.

6.0

Even matchUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

4.7Clay Elo 1383

Surface ELO

5.3+23 Clay Elo edge

4.7Overall Elo 1448

ELO gap

5.3Overall Elo 1470

5.0First meeting on clay

H2H

5.0First meeting on clay

2.02 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

2.73 of last 10 on clay

0.0Lost last 2

Win streak

0.0Lost last 3

Fatigue & Travel

0.03 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Giustino L.

240

Rincon D.

662

Conditions

Weather

24°CRain

Wind 6 km/hHumidity 60%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form

Giustino L.Rincon D.

61%1st serve in+3%58%

66%1st serve points won+4%62%

50%2nd serve points won+5%45%

60%Service points won+5%55%

39%Return points won+3%42%

62%Break points saved+9%53%

3.5Aces / match+0.92.6

2.2Double faults / match+0.31.9

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Lorenzo Giustino vs Daniel Rincon — Lyon Round of 32