Hugo Grenier vs Luca Van Assche

Lyon · CHALLENGER · Round of 32

FRA

Hugo Grenier

#222ATP

1573ELO

1438Clay ELO

30 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LLLLLLWWWW

0 — 2

Sets

Monday, 8 June 2026 · 17:25

clay

Court 1 · 4th on

FRA

Luca Van Assche

#98ATP

1655ELO

1572Clay ELO

$222kYTD

$2.4MCAREER

22 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LWLLLLLLLL

Luca Van Assche reeled off five straight games on the way to a 6-1 6-2 win over Hugo Grenier in the Lyon round of 32.

Key context

Set 1, game 1: Luca Van Assche saved four break points to hold serve.
Set 2, game 5: Luca Van Assche broke serve.
Pressure points: Hugo Grenier converted 0 of 7 break points; Luca Van Assche converted 4 of 6 break points.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:21 UTC

Grenier H.27%

Van Assche L.73%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Van Assche L. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Grenier H.

5.1

Clear underdogUmpiry Score

Van Assche L.

5.9

Even matchUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

3.3Clay Elo 1438

Surface ELO

6.7+134 Clay Elo edge

4.0Overall Elo 1573

ELO gap

6.0Overall Elo 1655

5.0First meeting on clay

H2H

5.0First meeting on clay

0.00 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

1.41 of last 10 on clay

0.0Lost last 6

Win streak

0.0

Fatigue & Travel

3-set count

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

6.2Home country · 9/24 here

Country comfort

5.6Home country · 6/22 here

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Grenier H.

120

Van Assche L.

662

Conditions

Weather

24°CRain

Wind 6 km/hHumidity 60%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form

Grenier H.Van Assche L.

66%1st serve in+4%62%

73%1st serve points won+7%66%

47%2nd serve points won+1%48%

64%Service points won+5%59%

36%Return points won+4%40%

54%Break points saved+9%63%

7Aces / match+4.72.3

2.4Double faults / match+0.52.9

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Hugo Grenier vs Luca Van Assche — Lyon Round of 32