Nicolas Alvarez Varona vs Milos Karol — Bratislava Qualifying Semi-final

Bratislava · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Semi-final
ESP
Nicolas Alvarez Varona
#454ATP
1359ELO
1306Clay ELO
25 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLLWWLL
2 — 1
Sets
Sunday, 7 June 2026 ·
clay
CENTER COURT · 4th on
SVK
Milos Karol
#443ATP
1388ELO
1353Clay ELO
23 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWLLLL

Nicolas Alvarez Varona survived one match point to beat Milos Karol in the Bratislava qualifying semi-final.

Key context

  • Set 3 tiebreak: Nicolas Alvarez Varona took the deciding set 7-6.
  • Comeback: Nicolas Alvarez Varona recovered from a set deficit to win.
  • Pressure points: Nicolas Alvarez Varona converted 3 of 6 break points; Milos Karol converted 2 of 10 break points.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:21 UTC
Alvarez Varona N.42%
Karol M.58%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Karol M. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Alvarez Varona N.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Karol M.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.4Clay Elo 1306
Surface ELO
5.6+47 Clay Elo edge
4.6Overall Elo 1358
ELO gap
5.4Overall Elo 1388
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.34 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
4.74 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Alvarez Varona N.
626792
Karol M.
774671

Conditions

Weather
25°CMainly clear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 39%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form
Alvarez Varona N.Karol M.
65%1st serve in+5%60%
67%1st serve points won+11%78%
47%2nd serve points won+5%52%
60%Service points won+8%68%
39%Return points won+5%34%
57%Break points saved57%
4.5Aces / match+812.5
4.1Double faults / match+0.14.2

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Draw — qualifying