Ignacio Buse vs Tommy Paul — Hamburg Final

Hamburg · ATP · Final
Ignacio Buse
PERQ
Ignacio Buse
#34ATP
1822ELO
1786Clay ELO
$949kYTD
$1.4MCAREER
22 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWLWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Saturday, 23 May 2026 ·
clay
Tommy Paul
USA
Tommy Paul
#25ATP
1949ELO
1886Clay ELO
$1.7MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
Buse I.
7-6 4-6 6-3
Paul T.
Buse I.
78462
Paul T.
66631

Ignacio Buse defeated Tommy Paul 7-6 4-6 6-3 in the Hamburg final on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Tommy Paul came in ranked #25, but Ignacio Buse had arrived on a 6-match winning run.

Key context

  • Match story: Ignacio Buse closed it out in three sets, 7–6 4–6 6–3.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Buse I.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Paul T.

Paul T.serving87% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Buse I.

Serve advantage — Paul T.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Buse I.Paul T.
41
Serve
34
14
Return
—

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Buse I.Paul T.
1st serve in·Even
62%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
76%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
49%
56%
Service points won·Slight edge
64%
69%
Return points won·Even
37%
37%
Break points saved·Even
64%
62%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.1
6.9
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.6
1.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Buse I.Paul T.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
63
93
Break points saved·Clear edge
87
99
Break points won·Dominant
28
87
Deciding sets·Clear edge
80
98
Tiebreaks·Even
93
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Buse I.
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Paul T.
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
3.0Clay Elo 1698
Surface ELO
7.0+158 Clay Elo edge
2.7Overall Elo 1732
ELO gap
7.3Overall Elo 1918
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
8.58 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
8.28 of last 10 on clay
9.06-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
Opponent rise
5.0Opponent hot: 8 of last 10

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Buse I.Paul T.
Freshness·Slight edge
90
81

Buse I.: 9 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Paul T.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 43 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
28°COvercast
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 35%
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Auger Aliassime F.
Kopriva V.
7-56-1
Kovacevic A.
Gea A.
6-27-63
Majchrzak K.
Ugo Carabelli C.
6-12-63-6
D. Dedura
Tiafoe F.
4-64-6
Cobolli F.
Buse I.
2-65-7
Mensik J.
Struff J.
7-636-2
Engel J.
Humbert U.
3-66-36-72
Gaston H.
Khachanov K.
6-33-66-74
Darderi L.
Burruchaga R.
6-37-64
Hanfmann Y.
Schoenhaus M.
6-36-746-4
Davidovich Fokina A.
Moutet C.
6-46-4
Cerundolo F.
De Minaur A.
6-34-63-6
Paul T.
Quinn E.
6-16-3
Atmane T.
Etcheverry T.
2-66-74
Altmaier D.
Hijikata R.
7-56-2
Giron M.
Shelton B.
3-66-46-73
Auger Aliassime F.
Kovacevic A.
6-45-74-6
Ugo Carabelli C.
Tiafoe F.
7-637-64
Buse I.
Mensik J.
6-06-3
Humbert U.
Khachanov K.
6-33-67-63
Darderi L.
Hanfmann Y.
7-677-5
Davidovich Fokina A.
De Minaur A.
2-66-44-6
Paul T.
Etcheverry T.
6-757-657-67
Altmaier D.
Shelton B.
4-67-646-4
Kovacevic A.
Ugo Carabelli C.
6-46-7106-2
Buse I.
Humbert U.
6-35-76-3
Darderi L.
De Minaur A.
0-63-6
Paul T.
Altmaier D.
6-27-5
Kovacevic A.
Buse I.
1-64-6
De Minaur A.
Paul T.
6-23-63-6
Buse I.
Paul T.
7-664-66-3