Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Camilo Ugo CarabelliHamburg Quarter-final

Hamburg · ATP · Quarter-final
#70ATP
1636ELO
1563Clay ELO
$627kYTD
$2.9MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLWLLLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Thursday, 21 May 2026 ·
clay
#58ATP
1759ELO
1741Clay ELO
$653kYTD
$2.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWLWL
Kovacevic A.
6-4 6-7 6-2
Ugo Carabelli C.
Kovacevic A.
661062
Ugo Carabelli C.
471221

Aleksandar Kovacevic defeated Camilo Ugo Carabelli 6-4 6-7 6-2 in the Hamburg quarter-final on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Camilo Ugo Carabelli came in ranked #58, defending last year's round of 16. Aleksandar Kovacevic extended the head-to-head to 2–0.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-10-13StockholmR32hardAleksandar Kovacevic4-6 7-5 4-0 RET

Serve vs return

This season
Kovacevic A.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Ugo Carabelli C.

Ugo Carabelli C.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Kovacevic A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Kovacevic A.Ugo Carabelli C.
Serve
24
Return
36

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
60%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
76%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
55%
49%
Service points won·Slight edge
68%
61%
Return points won·Slight edge
32%
37%
Break points saved·Even
63%
60%
Aces / match·Dominant
10.9
2.7
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.0
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (29 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
53
78
Break points saved·Slight edge
96
90
Break points won·Dominant
4
62
Deciding sets·Clear edge
81
96
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
60
72

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
2.0Clay Elo 1563
Surface ELO
8.0+178 Clay Elo edge
3.4Overall Elo 1636
ELO gap
6.6Overall Elo 1759
5.0
H2H
5.0
5.7
Surface form
7.0
Fatigue & Travel
0.0
3-set count
7.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
97
98

Kovacevic A.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Ugo Carabelli C.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
19°COvercast
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 55%