Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Frances TiafoeHamburg Round of 16

Hamburg · ATP · Round of 16
#59ATP
1759ELO
1741Clay ELO
$653kYTD
$2.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWLWLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 20 May 2026 ·
clay
#19ATP
1918ELO
1827Clay ELO
$1.9MYTD
$18MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWLW
Ugo Carabelli C.
7-6 7-6
Tiafoe F.
Ugo Carabelli C.
77772
Tiafoe F.
63640

Camilo Ugo Carabelli defeated Frances Tiafoe 7-6 7-6 in the Hamburg round of 16 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Frances Tiafoe came in ranked #19, defending last year's round of 16.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Ugo Carabelli C.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Tiafoe F.

Tiafoe F.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Ugo Carabelli C.

Serve advantage — Tiafoe F.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Ugo Carabelli C.Tiafoe F.
24
Serve
36
Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
69%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
53%
Service points won·Slight edge
61%
66%
Return points won·Even
37%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
65%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.7
6.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.4
1.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
78
83
Break points saved·Slight edge
90
99
Break points won·Slight edge
62
57
Deciding sets·Even
96
92
Tiebreaks·Dominant
72
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.1Clay Elo 1741
Surface ELO
5.9+87 Clay Elo edge
3.3Overall Elo 1759
ELO gap
6.7Overall Elo 1918
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
6.6
Surface form
7.6
Fatigue & Travel
7.0
3-set count
7.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
97
72

Ugo Carabelli C.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Tiafoe F.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 55 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
14°CMainly clear
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 85%