Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Matteo BerrettiniValencia Round of 16

Valencia · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#59ATP
1759ELO
1741Clay ELO
$653kYTD
$2.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWLLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Thursday, 14 May 2026 ·
clay
#51ATP
1831ELO
1790Clay ELO
$902kYTD
$15MCAREER
30 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWWL
Ugo Carabelli C.
7-6 6-4
Berrettini M.
Ugo Carabelli C.
762
Berrettini M.
640

Camilo Ugo Carabelli defeated Matteo Berrettini 7-6 6-4 in the Valencia round of 16 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Matteo Berrettini came in ranked #51.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Ugo Carabelli C.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Berrettini M.

Berrettini M.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Ugo Carabelli C.

Serve advantage — Berrettini M.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Ugo Carabelli C.Berrettini M.
24
Serve
51
36
Return
34

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
60%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
73%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
49%
54%
Service points won·Slight edge
61%
66%
Return points won·Even
37%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.7
6.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.4
1.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
78
81
Break points saved·Slight edge
90
100
Break points won·Slight edge
62
53
Deciding sets·Slight edge
96
91
Tiebreaks·Dominant
72
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 22 days (−0.3)
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.6Clay Elo 1741
Surface ELO
5.4+50 Clay Elo edge
4.1Overall Elo 1759
ELO gap
5.9Overall Elo 1831
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
5.3
Surface form
6.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.0
Prev. match
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
98
80

Ugo Carabelli C.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Berrettini M.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About