Matteo Arnaldi vs Hubert HurkaczCagliari CH Final

Cagliari CH · CHALLENGER · Final
#35ATP
1830ELO
1830Clay ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Tuesday, 28 April 2026
clay
#96ATP
1798ELO
1762Clay ELO
$1.3MYTD
$20MCAREER
29 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWLLWW
Arnaldi M.
6-4 6-4
Hurkacz H.
Arnaldi M.
662
Hurkacz H.
440

Matteo Arnaldi defeated Hubert Hurkacz 6-4 6-4 in the Cagliari CH final on clay. The result followed the form book — Matteo Arnaldi came in ranked #35.

Key context

  • Match story: Matteo Arnaldi edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Arnaldi M.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Hurkacz H.

Hurkacz H.serving84% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Arnaldi M.

Serve advantage — Hurkacz H.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
56%
63%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
65%
78%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
53%
Service points won·Slight edge
58%
69%
Return points won·Even
39%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
58%
67%
Aces / match·Dominant
3.7
12.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.4
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (14 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
78
78
Break points saved·Even
97
100
Break points won·Slight edge
51
40
Deciding sets·Slight edge
86
94
Tiebreaks·Even
99
97

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.3+68 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
5.7Clay Elo 1762
3.9Overall Elo 1830
ELO gap
6.1Overall Elo 1798
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
1.7
Surface form
6.6
0.0Lost last 4
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
8.7
Minutes 14d
8.2
4.0
3-set count
Prev. match
9.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
93
63

Arnaldi M.: 10 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Hurkacz H.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 96 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast