Anastasia Potapova vs Elena RybakinaMadrid Round of 16

Madrid · WTA · Round of 16
#28WTA
1904ELO
1882Clay ELO
$1.2MYTD
$6.5MCAREER
25 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWLWWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Tuesday, 21 April 2026
clay
#2WTA
2122ELO
2002Clay ELO
$4.4MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWLWLW
Potapova A.
7-6 6-4
Rybakina E.
Potapova A.
71062
Rybakina E.
6840

Anastasia Potapova defeated Elena Rybakina 7-6 6-4 in the Madrid round of 16 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Elena Rybakina came in ranked #2, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 32, but Anastasia Potapova had been the form player, winning 3 of their last 4 on clay. Anastasia Potapova claimed a first win over Elena Rybakina in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-01-01BrisbaneQFhardElena Rybakina6-1 RET

Serve vs return

This season
Potapova A.serving70% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Rybakina E.

Rybakina E.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Potapova A.

Serve advantage — Rybakina E.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Potapova A.Rybakina E.
Serve
100
Return
9

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
58%
60%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
66%
73%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
44%
53%
Service points won·Slight edge
56%
65%
Return points won·Even
45%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
61%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
3.3
6.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.9
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
81
92
Break points saved·Slight edge
89
98
Break points won·Slight edge
88
96
Deciding sets·Even
96
98
Tiebreaks·Dominant
57
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
8.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.5Clay Elo 1882
Surface ELO
7.5+120 Clay Elo edge
1.2Overall Elo 1904
ELO gap
8.8Overall Elo 2122
5.0
H2H
5.0
5.8
Surface form
9.3
0.0
Win streak
9.06-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
5.9
3-set count
7.0
8.0
Prev. match
9.0
6.0
Surface transition
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
98
87

Potapova A.: 11 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Rybakina E.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
22°COvercast
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 34%

Draw