Rafael Jodar vs Camilo Ugo CarabelliMarrakech Semi-final

Marrakech · ATP · Semi-final
#26ATP
1999ELO
1949Clay ELO
$1.6MYTD
$1.9MCAREER
19 yrs · 191 cm
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 30 March 2026
clay
#59ATP
1759ELO
1741Clay ELO
$653kYTD
$2.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWLWLW
Jodar R.
6-2 6-1
Ugo Carabelli C.
Jodar R.
662
Ugo Carabelli C.
210

Rafael Jodar defeated Camilo Ugo Carabelli 6-2 6-1 in the Marrakech semi-final on clay. The result followed the form book — Rafael Jodar came in ranked #26, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Rafael Jodar extended the head-to-head to 2–0.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-04-13BarcelonaR16clayRafael Jodar6-3 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Jodar R.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Ugo Carabelli C.

Ugo Carabelli C.serving66% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Jodar R.

Serve advantage — Jodar R.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Jodar R.Ugo Carabelli C.
60
Serve
24
85
Return
36

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
55%
50%
Service points won·Even
65%
61%
Return points won·Even
41%
37%
Break points saved·Even
62%
60%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.1
2.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.3
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (38 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
86
78
Break points saved·Even
91
90
Break points won·Slight edge
71
62
Deciding sets·Even
100
96
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
93
72

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.3+208 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.7Clay Elo 1741
7.8Overall Elo 1999
ELO gap
2.2Overall Elo 1759
5.0
H2H
5.0
6.0
Surface form
6.0
9.06-match win streak
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
5.6
Minutes 14d
8.2
7.0
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
9.0
6.0
Surface transition
6.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
82
97

Jodar R.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Ugo Carabelli C.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast