Tommy Paul vs Roman Andres BurruchagaHouston Final

Houston · ATP · Final
#25ATP
1949ELO
1886Clay ELO
$1.7MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 30 March 2026
clay
#65ATP
1711ELO
1694Clay ELO
$446kYTD
$1.2MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLWLLWLW
Paul T.
6-1 3-6 7-5
Burruchaga R.
Paul T.
6372
Burruchaga R.
1651

Tommy Paul defeated Roman Andres Burruchaga 6-1 3-6 7-5 in the Houston final on clay. The result followed the form book — Tommy Paul came in ranked #25, defending last year's semi-final.

Key context

  • Match story: Tommy Paul came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 6–1 3–6 7–5.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Paul T.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Burruchaga R.

Burruchaga R.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Paul T.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Paul T.Burruchaga R.
34
Serve
Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
77%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
57%
49%
Service points won·Slight edge
69%
61%
Return points won·Slight edge
37%
43%
Break points saved·Even
61%
64%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.0
2.3
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.4
3.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
93
67
Break points saved·Dominant
99
68
Break points won·Clear edge
87
73
Deciding sets·Clear edge
98
84
Tiebreaks·Dominant
96
65

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Form & Matchup
6.7+192 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.3Clay Elo 1694
7.2Overall Elo 1949
ELO gap
2.8Overall Elo 1711
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
8.3
Surface form
10.0
Win streak
10.010-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.9
Minutes 14d
1.8
0.0
3-set count
0.0
9.0
Prev. match
6.0
Surface transition
Context
8.5
Defending pts
5.0
5.0
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
78
86

Paul T.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 43 games (7d) · Burruchaga R.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast