Alex Molcan vs Matteo Arnaldi — Bucharest Round of 32

Bucharest · ATP · Round of 32
Alex Molcan
SVK
Alex Molcan
#101ATP
1742ELO
1712Clay ELO
$295kYTD
$2.7MCAREER
28 yrs · 178 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 30 March 2026
clay
Matteo Arnaldi
ITA
Matteo Arnaldi
#35ATP
1830ELO
1830Clay ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWL
Molcan A.
6-3 6-1
Arnaldi M.
Molcan A.
662
Arnaldi M.
310

Alex Molcan defeated Matteo Arnaldi 6-3 6-1 in the Bucharest round of 32 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Matteo Arnaldi came in ranked #35.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Molcan A.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Arnaldi M.

Arnaldi M.serving60% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Molcan A.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
Molcan A.Arnaldi M.
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
56%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
50%
Service points won·Even
62%
58%
Return points won·Even
41%
40%
Break points saved·Even
63%
59%
Aces / match·Even
3.2
3.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.6
4.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 14). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Molcan A.Arnaldi M.
Clutch Rating·Even
79
78
Break points saved·Slight edge
90
97
Break points won·Slight edge
61
51
Deciding sets·Slight edge
91
86
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
91
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Molcan A.
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Arnaldi M.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.8Clay Elo 1712
Surface ELO
5.2+119 Clay Elo edge
5.1Overall Elo 1742
ELO gap
4.9Overall Elo 1830
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
7.4
Surface form
5.6
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
7.5
Minutes 14d
8.5
4.0
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
7.0
Surface transition
6.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Molcan A.Arnaldi M.
Freshness·Slight edge
89
94

Molcan A.: 9 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Arnaldi M.: 11 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Final
Navone M.[7]
Merida Aguilar D.
6-24-67-5
Semi-finals
Merida Aguilar D.
Marozsan F.[3]
6-746-36-1
Navone M.[7]
Van De Zandschulp B.[8]
5-77-637-5
Quarter-finals
Merida Aguilar D.
Droguet T.
4-67-673-1
Marozsan F.[3]
Altmaier D.[6]
6-27-65
Navone M.[7]
Molcan A.
3-66-26-3
Van De Zandschulp B.[8]
Dzumhur D.
6-36-3
R16
Molcan A.
Diallo G.[1]
6-26-2
Merida Aguilar D.
Mannarino A.[2]
4-66-26-2
Droguet T.
Baez S.[5]
6-46-4
Van De Zandschulp B.[8]
Shevchenko A.
7-56-1
Altmaier D.[6]
Prizmic D.
3-67-617-67
Dzumhur D.
Borges N.[4]
7-616-4
Marozsan F.[3]
Sakellaridis S.
7-637-5
Navone M.[7]
Moller E.
6-26-1
R32
Van De Zandschulp B.[8]
Maestrelli F.
6-36-2
Sakellaridis S.
Choinski J.
6-36-4
Moller E.
Boitan G.
6-37-5
Altmaier D.[6]
Martinez P.
6-16-4
Dzumhur D.
Jianu F.
6-34-67-64
Navone M.[7]
Oconnell C.
6-47-68
Molcan A.
Arnaldi M.
6-36-1
Merida Aguilar D.
Virtanen O.
7-645-77-5
Baez S.[5]
Gaubas V.
6-36-1
Droguet T.
Bautista Agut R.
6-11-66-1
Prizmic D.
Basilashvili N.
6-46-2
Shevchenko A.
Turcanu R.
6-26-4