Shintaro Mochizuki vs Keegan SmithMorelia CH Round of 32

Morelia CH · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#151ATP
1475ELO
1425Hard ELO
$243kYTD
$1.6MCAREER
23 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 23 March 2026
hard
#247ATP
1421ELO
1395Hard ELO
28 yrs · 201 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWLWLL
Mochizuki S.
3-6 6-3 6-4
Smith K.
Mochizuki S.
3662
Smith K.
6341

Shintaro Mochizuki defeated Keegan Smith 3-6 6-3 6-4 in the Morelia CH round of 32 on hard. The result followed the form book — Shintaro Mochizuki came in ranked #151, defending last year's round of 32.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Mochizuki S.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Smith K.

Smith K.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Mochizuki S.

Serve advantage — Smith K.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
53%
75%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
66%
72%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
45%
56%
Service points won·Clear edge
56%
68%
Return points won·Even
37%
35%
Break points saved·Clear edge
56%
68%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.8
6.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
6.2
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
52
26
Break points saved·Slight edge
74
84
Break points won·Dominant
55
3
Deciding sets·Even
46
48
Tiebreaks·Dominant
80
10

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.5+31 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.5Hard Elo 1395
6.9Overall Elo 1475
ELO gap
3.1Overall Elo 1421
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
3.3
Surface form
3.5
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0Lost last 4
Fatigue & Travel
6.8
Minutes 14d
8.0
4.0
3-set count
0.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
80
78

Mochizuki S.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 31 games (7d) · Smith K.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 36 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast