Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Pablo Carreno BustaAlicante CH Final

Alicante CH · CHALLENGER · Final
#119ATP
1757ELO
1732Clay ELO
$268kYTD
$884kCAREER
23 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWLWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 23 March 2026
clay
#71ATP
1801ELO
1767Clay ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
Llamas Ruiz P.
6-4 6-2
Carreno Busta P.
Llamas Ruiz P.
662
Carreno Busta P.
420

Pablo Llamas Ruiz defeated Pablo Carreno Busta 6-4 6-2 in the Alicante CH final on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Pablo Carreno Busta came in ranked #71, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Pablo Llamas Ruiz claimed a first win over Pablo Carreno Busta in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-08-25US OpenR128hardPablo Carreno Busta7-6(7) 6-4 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Llamas Ruiz P.serving72% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Carreno Busta P.serving68% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Llamas Ruiz P.

Serve advantage — Llamas Ruiz P.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
72%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
53%
Service points won·Even
63%
63%
Return points won·Even
42%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
53%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.1
2.7
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.0
1.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
63
78
Break points saved·Slight edge
88
97
Break points won·Clear edge
39
61
Deciding sets·Even
79
80
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
72
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
7.5
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.4Clay Elo 1732
Surface ELO
5.6+35 Clay Elo edge
4.2Overall Elo 1757
ELO gap
5.8Overall Elo 1801
5.0
H2H
5.0
6.9
Surface form
10.0
0.0
Win streak
10.012-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.4
Minutes 14d
5.3
4.0
3-set count
4.0
9.0
Prev. match
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
97
90

Llamas Ruiz P.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Carreno Busta P.: 10 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast