Mattia Bellucci vs Hubert HurkaczCap Cana CH Round of 16

Cap Cana CH · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#80ATP
1720ELO
1678Hard ELO
$587kYTD
$2.5MCAREER
25 yrs · 175 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWWLL
2 — 0
Sets
Tuesday, 10 March 2026
hard
#68ATP
1798ELO
1727Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$20MCAREER
29 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWLLWL
Bellucci M.
6-2 6-4
Hurkacz H.
Bellucci M.
662
Hurkacz H.
240

Mattia Bellucci defeated Hubert Hurkacz 6-2 6-4 in the Cap Cana CH round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Hubert Hurkacz came in ranked #68.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Bellucci M.serving87% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Hurkacz H.

Hurkacz H.serving92% hold

wins 72% of points on serve vs Bellucci M.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Bellucci M.Hurkacz H.
0
Serve
67
40
Return
0

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
72%
78%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
53%
Service points won·Slight edge
64%
69%
Return points won·Even
36%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
67%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.0
12.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.7
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
60
78
Break points saved·Even
96
100
Break points won·Dominant
10
40
Deciding sets·Clear edge
81
94
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
85
97

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.0Hard Elo 1678
Surface ELO
6.0+49 Hard Elo edge
3.2Overall Elo 1720
ELO gap
6.8Overall Elo 1798
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
4.4
Surface form
3.2
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 5
Fatigue & Travel
8.7
Minutes 14d
8.9
7.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
100
76

Bellucci M.: 20 days rest · Hurkacz H.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast