Keegan Smith vs August HolmgrenThionville CH Round of 32

Thionville CH · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#247ATP
1421ELO
1395Hard ELO
28 yrs · 201 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWLWLL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 2 March 2026
hard
#143ATP
1566ELO
1517Hard ELO
$130kYTD
$646kCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWLWLWL
Smith K.
6-3 3-6 6-3
Holmgren A.
Smith K.
6362
Holmgren A.
3631

Keegan Smith defeated August Holmgren 6-3 3-6 6-3 in the Thionville CH round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — August Holmgren came in ranked #143.

Key context

  • Match story: Keegan Smith closed it out in three sets, 6–3 3–6 6–3.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Smith K.serving91% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Holmgren A.

Holmgren A.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Smith K.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
75%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
55%
51%
Service points won·Even
67%
66%
Return points won·Even
35%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
69%
63%
Aces / match·Even
6.9
7.5
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.8
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
26
43
Break points saved·Slight edge
84
90
Break points won·Even
3
0
Deciding sets·Even
48
46
Tiebreaks·Dominant
10
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.7Hard Elo 1395
Surface ELO
7.3+122 Hard Elo edge
2.6Overall Elo 1421
ELO gap
7.4Overall Elo 1566
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
5.4
Surface form
3.0
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
6.7
7.0
3-set count
4.0
Prev. match
7.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
74
83

Smith K.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 57 games (7d) · Holmgren A.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 31 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast