Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Jan Choinski — Thionville CH Quarter-final

Thionville CH · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
NOR6
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
#121ATP
1620ELO
1598Hard ELO
$293kYTD
$747kCAREER
19 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLLLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 2 March 2026
hard
Jan Choinski
GBR2
Jan Choinski
#100ATP
1686ELO
1571Hard ELO
$204kYTD
$1.2MCAREER
30 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLWLWWW
Budkov Kjaer N.
6-4 7-6
Choinski J.
Budkov Kjaer N.
6772
Choinski J.
4650

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer defeated Jan Choinski 6-4 7-6 in the Thionville CH quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Jan Choinski came in ranked #100, defending last year's quarter-final.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Budkov Kjaer N.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Choinski J.

Choinski J.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Budkov Kjaer N.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
Budkov Kjaer N.Choinski J.
1st serve in·Even
65%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
51%
Service points won·Even
62%
63%
Return points won·Even
38%
36%
Break points saved·Even
61%
59%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.7
4.4
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.5
2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 29). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Budkov Kjaer N.Choinski J.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
67
55
Break points saved·Clear edge
78
90
Break points won·Clear edge
39
20
Deciding sets·Slight edge
96
87
Tiebreaks·Dominant
81
41

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Budkov Kjaer N.
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Choinski J.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.4+27 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.6Hard Elo 1571
6.3Overall Elo 1620
ELO gap
3.7Overall Elo 1686
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
4.5
Surface form
6.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.1
Minutes 14d
4.5
3-set count
0.0
7.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
7.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Budkov Kjaer N.Choinski J.
Freshness·Dominant
100
60

Budkov Kjaer N.: 16 days rest · Choinski J.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 67 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Final
Ofner S.[4]
Budkov Kjaer N.[6]
6-756-37-67
Semi-finals
Ofner S.[4]
Gaston H.[1]
6-46-2
Budkov Kjaer N.[6]
Virtanen O.[3]
4-66-27-63
Quarter-finals
Gaston H.[1]
Kouame M.
3-66-36-4
Ofner S.[4]
Rodionov J.
6-23-66-3
Budkov Kjaer N.[6]
Choinski J.[2]
6-47-65
Virtanen O.[3]
Blanchet U.[8]
7-57-63
R16
Kouame M.
Zeppieri G.[5]
6-11-0
Gaston H.[1]
Smith K.
3-66-36-2
Ofner S.[4]
Cassone M.
7-56-2
Choinski J.[2]
Safiullin R.
4-67-57-5
Rodionov J.
Krumich M.
6-36-2
Blanchet U.[8]
Chidekh C.
6-26-2
Virtanen O.[3]
Herbert P.
7-56-4
Budkov Kjaer N.[6]
Nishikori K.
3-66-46-2
R32
Rodionov J.
Grenier H.
6-31-0
Cassone M.
Broom C.
6-46-3
Blanchet U.[8]
Watanuki Y.
6-756-23-0
Gaston H.[1]
Glinka D.
6-34-2
Smith K.
Holmgren A.
6-33-66-3
Kouame M.
Sels J.
6-36-0
Zeppieri G.[5]
Engel J.
4-67-56-1
Ofner S.[4]
Loffhagen G.
4-67-57-65
Chidekh C.
Bertola R.
6-37-63
Virtanen O.[3]
Paris T.
6-41-67-62
Safiullin R.
Skatov T.
7-636-3
Krumich M.
Added D.
6-46-2
Herbert P.
Bailly G.
6-36-736-3
Budkov Kjaer N.[6]
Molcan A.
6-16-2
Nishikori K.
Tabur C.
7-54-66-2
Choinski J.[2]
Malige M.
7-636-1