Marina Stakusic vs Dayana Yastremska — Merida Round of 32

Merida · WTA · Round of 32
CAN
Marina Stakusic
#138WTA
1707ELO
1672Hard ELO
21 yrs · 174 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWWWLL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 23 February 2026
hard
Dayana Yastremska
UKR5
Dayana Yastremska
#74WTA
1792ELO
1733Hard ELO
$505kYTD
$6.5MCAREER
26 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWLWWW
Stakusic M.
6-4 6-3
Yastremska D.
Stakusic M.
662
Yastremska D.
430

Marina Stakusic defeated Dayana Yastremska 6-4 6-3 in the Merida round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Dayana Yastremska came in ranked #74.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Stakusic M.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Yastremska D.

Yastremska D.serving72% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Stakusic M.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Stakusic M.Yastremska D.
—
Serve
11
—
Return
25

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Stakusic M.Yastremska D.
1st serve in·Even
61%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
68%
60%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
49%
Service points won·Even
60%
56%
Return points won·Even
42%
44%
Break points saved·Even
56%
52%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.3
2.3
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.7
4.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (9 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Stakusic M.Yastremska D.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
61
77
Break points saved·Clear edge
73
89
Break points won·Even
94
92
Deciding sets·Slight edge
54
63
Tiebreaks·
—
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Stakusic M.
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Injury return: 35 days (−1.0)
Yastremska D.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.3Hard Elo 1672
Surface ELO
5.7+61 Hard Elo edge
4.0Overall Elo 1707
ELO gap
6.0Overall Elo 1792
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
6.8
Surface form
3.5
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
9.2
Prev. match
9.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Stakusic M.Yastremska D.
Freshness·
—
97

Yastremska D.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
23°CMainly clear
Wind 22 km/hHumidity 49%

Draw

Final
Bucsa C.
Frech M.
6-14-66-4
Semi-finals
Frech M.
Zhang S.
6-26-766-3
Bucsa C.
Paolini J.[1]
7-56-4
Quarter-finals
Paolini J.[1]
Boulter K.
0-66-36-3
Zhang S.
Jimenez Kasintseva V.
6-16-3
Frech M.
Bouzkova M.[4]
6-34-66-3
Bucsa C.
Sonmez Z.
6-36-4
R16
Bouzkova M.[4]
Arango E.
2-66-12-0
Frech M.
Bouzas Maneiro J.[7]
6-06-3
Bucsa C.
Stakusic M.
7-616-3
Boulter K.
Osorio C.
6-30-0
Zhang S.
Navarro E.[2]
6-46-4
Sonmez Z.
Li A.[3]
3-67-676-4
Paolini J.[1]
Hon P.
6-06-2
Jimenez Kasintseva V.
Linette M.[8]
5-77-657-5
R32
Bucsa C.
Vekic D.
6-36-2
Boulter K.
Haddad Maia B.
6-46-4
Jimenez Kasintseva V.
Putintseva Y.
6-41-66-4
Zhang S.
Lepchenko V.
6-26-1
Stakusic M.
Yastremska D.[5]
6-46-3
Linette M.[8]
Maria T.
7-636-3
Hon P.
Zarazua R.
6-22-66-4
Bouzas Maneiro J.[7]
Watson H.
6-36-1
Osorio C.
Tjen J.[6]
6-46-3
Arango E.
Potapova A.
7-606-2
Frech M.
Timofeeva M.
6-47-66
Sonmez Z.
Brace C.
6-26-0