Sakura Hosogi vs Claire Liu — Midland 125 Round of 32

Midland 125 · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
JPN
Sakura Hosogi
#360WTA
1358ELO
1344Hard ELO
26 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWWWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 16 February 2026
hard
Claire Liu
USA
Claire Liu
#146WTA
1669ELO
1635Hard ELO
26 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWLLW
Hosogi S.
3-6 6-1 6-3
Liu C.
Hosogi S.
3662
Liu C.
6131

Sakura Hosogi defeated Claire Liu 3-6 6-1 6-3 in the Midland 125 round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Claire Liu came in ranked #146.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Hosogi S.serving44% hold

wins 48% of points on serve vs Liu C.

Liu C.serving51% hold

wins 51% of points on serve vs Hosogi S.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
Hosogi S.Liu C.
1st serve in·Even
73%
69%
1st serve points won·Even
59%
59%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
45%
Service points won·Even
55%
55%
Return points won·Even
45%
48%
Break points saved·Even
55%
54%
Aces / match·Clear edge
0.6
2.2
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.5
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (17 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Hosogi S.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Liu C.
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 28 days (−0.3)
Form & Matchup
1.8Hard Elo 1344
Surface ELO
8.2+291 Hard Elo edge
1.9Overall Elo 1358
ELO gap
8.1Overall Elo 1669
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
4.1
Surface form
5.1
0.0
Win streak
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Hosogi S.Liu C.
Freshness·
—
71

Liu C.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 48 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Final
Charaeva A.
Guo H.
6-47-64
Semi-finals
Charaeva A.
Vidmanova D.
3-66-36-4
Guo H.
Stoiana M.
7-646-727-5
Quarter-finals
Stoiana M.
Sebov K.
6-36-4
Guo H.
Kalieva E.
6-22-67-68
Charaeva A.
Hibino N.
7-656-3
Vidmanova D.
Frey A.
6-26-2
R16
Sebov K.
Cross K.
6-26-2
Stoiana M.
Brengle M.
6-26-2
Kalieva E.
Hosogi S.
6-26-2
Charaeva A.
You X.
6-47-64
Hibino N.
Osuigwe W.
6-26-4
Frey A.
Day K.
6-43-66-3
Vidmanova D.
Lee G.
6-26-2
Guo H.
Jokic K.
6-11-0
R32
Lee G.
Ma L.
6-26-3
Kalieva E.
Rogers A.
6-46-2
Hosogi S.
Liu C.
3-66-16-3
Sebov K.
Krueger A.
7-52-67-5
Cross K.
Brace C.
6-45-76-4
Jokic K.
Jones E.
6-42-66-2
Guo H.
Chirico L.
3-66-46-2
You X.
Karatancheva L.
6-26-3
Hibino N.
Ansari C.
6-25-76-4
Frey A.
Mandlik E.
7-56-2
Day K.
Coleman E.
6-46-2
Brengle M.
Scott K.
6-36-2
Stoiana M.
Chang H.
3-67-696-2
Charaeva A.
Xu S.
6-06-4
Osuigwe W.
Hewitt D.
6-46-3
Vidmanova D.
Sawashiro K.
6-26-1