Hanyu Guo vs Elvina Kalieva — Midland 125 Quarter-final

Midland 125 · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
CHN
Hanyu Guo
#159WTA
1625ELO
1592Hard ELO
28 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWWLLL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 16 February 2026
hard
USA
Elvina Kalieva
#136WTA
1569ELO
1540Hard ELO
22 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLWWLLW
Guo H.
6-2 2-6 7-6
Kalieva E.
Guo H.
627102
Kalieva E.
26681

Hanyu Guo defeated Elvina Kalieva 6-2 2-6 7-6 in the Midland 125 quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Elvina Kalieva came in ranked #136.

Key context

  • Match story: Hanyu Guo closed it out in three sets, 6–2 2–6 7–6.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Guo H.serving56% hold

wins 52% of points on serve vs Kalieva E.

Kalieva E.serving58% hold

wins 53% of points on serve vs Guo H.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
Guo H.Kalieva E.
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
56%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
62%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
48%
Service points won·Even
56%
60%
Return points won·Even
47%
44%
Break points saved·Slight edge
51%
58%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.4
4.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.0
4.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (19 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Guo H.Kalieva E.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
58
18
Break points saved·Even
25
28
Break points won·Slight edge
96
87
Deciding sets·Dominant
93
37
Tiebreaks·
—
15

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Guo H.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 28 days (−0.3)
Kalieva E.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Injury return: 28 days (−0.3)
Form & Matchup
5.4+52 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.6Hard Elo 1540
5.3Overall Elo 1625
ELO gap
4.7Overall Elo 1569
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
4.4
Surface form
6.3
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Guo H.Kalieva E.
Freshness·Even
100
100

Guo H.: 18 days rest · Kalieva E.: 17 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Final
Charaeva A.
Guo H.
6-47-64
Semi-finals
Charaeva A.
Vidmanova D.
3-66-36-4
Guo H.
Stoiana M.
7-646-727-5
Quarter-finals
Stoiana M.
Sebov K.
6-36-4
Guo H.
Kalieva E.
6-22-67-68
Charaeva A.
Hibino N.
7-656-3
Vidmanova D.
Frey A.
6-26-2
R16
Sebov K.
Cross K.
6-26-2
Stoiana M.
Brengle M.
6-26-2
Kalieva E.
Hosogi S.
6-26-2
Charaeva A.
You X.
6-47-64
Hibino N.
Osuigwe W.
6-26-4
Frey A.
Day K.
6-43-66-3
Vidmanova D.
Lee G.
6-26-2
Guo H.
Jokic K.
6-11-0
R32
Lee G.
Ma L.
6-26-3
Kalieva E.
Rogers A.
6-46-2
Hosogi S.
Liu C.
3-66-16-3
Sebov K.
Krueger A.
7-52-67-5
Cross K.
Brace C.
6-45-76-4
Jokic K.
Jones E.
6-42-66-2
Guo H.
Chirico L.
3-66-46-2
You X.
Karatancheva L.
6-26-3
Hibino N.
Ansari C.
6-25-76-4
Frey A.
Mandlik E.
7-56-2
Day K.
Coleman E.
6-46-2
Brengle M.
Scott K.
6-36-2
Stoiana M.
Chang H.
3-67-696-2
Charaeva A.
Xu S.
6-06-4
Osuigwe W.
Hewitt D.
6-46-3
Vidmanova D.
Sawashiro K.
6-26-1