Naoki Nakagawa vs Adam WaltonBrisbane 1 CH Round of 32

Brisbane 1 CH · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#774ATP
1289ELO
1271Hard ELO
29 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLLLL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 2 February 2026
hard
#85ATP
1703ELO
1669Hard ELO
$499kYTD
$2.3MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLLWWWL
Nakagawa N.
4-6 6-3 6-4
Walton A.
Nakagawa N.
4662
Walton A.
6341

Naoki Nakagawa defeated Adam Walton 4-6 6-3 6-4 in the Brisbane 1 CH round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Adam Walton came in ranked #85, defending last year's semi-final.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Nakagawa N.serving91% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Walton A.

Walton A.serving84% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Nakagawa N.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Nakagawa N.Walton A.
Serve
35
Return
27

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
55%
65%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
84%
71%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
50%
55%
Service points won·Even
69%
65%
Return points won·Even
39%
36%
Break points saved·Clear edge
50%
65%
Aces / match·Dominant
10.7
6.9
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.6
1.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (7 vs 40). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
3
66
Break points saved·Dominant
57
95
Break points won·Clear edge
1
20
Deciding sets·Dominant
12
96
Tiebreaks·Dominant
17
73

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
2.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 77 days (−1.2)
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
0.5Hard Elo 1271
Surface ELO
9.5+398 Hard Elo edge
0.2Overall Elo 1289
ELO gap
9.8Overall Elo 1703
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
1.2
Surface form
3.1
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
8.8
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
7.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
8.5

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
57

Walton A.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 87 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast